Exercício de Prospectiva para a Região Centro - Análise de Cenários e Questionário Delphi

Abstract

This paper results from a foresight exercise developed during the elaboration of the Regional Territorial Plan of the Centro Region (PROT-C) as a means to generate relevant knowledge to be used in the definition of regional development options. This foresight exercise gathered a panel of 36 experts from 3 different areas: i) Innovation and Competitiveness, ii) Environmental Sustainability, and iii) Planning and Territorial Development. Two different techniques were applied, the analysis of scenarios and the Delphi questionnaire. The analysis of scenarios, not explored in this article, took place in the first part of the exercise, and served as the framework for the analysis of the Delphi  questionnaire.  With  regard to the Delphi questionnaire, answers from each participant were sought for a number of issues directly related to the presented scenarios. The questions of the survey were prepared in ways that allowed experts to give answers in a Likert scale and position themselves towards each scenario. This paper details the methodological approach to this exercise and its results. It emphasises the innovative nature of the combination of a Delphi methodology with a scenario analysis methodology, and addresses the qualities of the collected information vis a vis the needs of stout regional development policy design.