Análise “cross-section” e em painel da influência dos efeitos espaciais na convergência dos sectores económicos entre as regiões portuguesas

Abstract

The spatial effects consideration in the analyses realized with spatial units (regions, etc) it is more and more frequent and for that, among other, it contributed the Anselin (1988) work. In this study is analysed, through cross-section and panel estimate methods, the spatial effects influence in the conditioned convergence of the economics sectors productivity (product for worker) between the Continental Portugal NUTs III, from 1995 to 2002. From the analysis of the data, considering statistics Moran´s I, it is verified that the productivity is subject to positive spatial autocorrelation (the productivity of each one regions develops in way similar to the productivity of the neighbour regions), above all, in the agriculture and in the services. The industry and eventually the totality of the sectors present indications of be subject to positive autocorrelation in the productivity. On the other hand, it is verified that the convergence signs, considering namely the concept of absolute convergence, are larger in the industry. Considering the estimates results, is confirmed again that the convergence indications are larger in the industry and is verified which the spillovers effects spatial lag (capture spatial autocorrelation through the dependent variable spatially lagged) and spatial error (capture spatial autocorrelation through the error term spatially lagged) condition the productivity convergence of the several economics sectors between the Portuguese regions, in the considered period, being the results obtained in the panel estimate methods more satisfactory.