Convergência e determinantes das emissões de carbono na agricultura brasileira
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59072/rper.vi70.682Palavras-chave:
Análise de convergência, emissões de dióxido de carbono, agricultura, solos manejados, BrasilResumo
Este artigo apresenta evidências empíricas da convergência das emissões de dióxido de carbono (CO²) de solos agrícolas manejados (emissões diretas da agricultura) e seus determinantes para os estados brasileiros durante o período de 1975 a 2019. Para isso, o teste log t e um algoritmo de agrupamento são usados para investigar as características do processo de convergência das emissões de CO² na agricultura. Posteriormente, um modelo Probit é usado para identificar os fatores que determinam a formação de clubes de convergência. Empregando essa abordagem econométrica, identificamos dois clubes de convergência. Um clube é formado por 9 (33%) estados brasileiros com altas emissões de CO² na agricultura, enquanto o outro é formado por 18 (67%) estados com baixas emissões. O uso da terra, a mão de obra, o capital, a densidade de bovinos, a produção agrícola, a produção industrial, o crédito rural e o consumo de energia são identificados como fatores determinantes para a formação desses clubes de convergência. Por fim, ao compararmos as emissões de CO² desses clubes antes e depois da implementação do Protocolo de Kyoto, constatamos que a sustentabilidade ambiental tem sido amplamente negligenciada na agricultura brasileira.
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