Socioeconomic Determinants of Pilgrimages: A Var Approach to the Portuguese Case of Fatima

Abstract

This study examines the phenomenon of pilgrimages to the Shrine of Fatima from the perspective of the economic sciences. Through an economic model, it seeks to establish the relationship between Catholic religious tourism and the Portuguese economic reality in the shortrun. An Autoregressive Vector model with annual data from 1994 to 2018 found endogeneity for the model. Thus, the relationships between a number of economic variables (Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, population, index of informational globalisation) and the phenomenon of pilgrimages were confirmed by the model. The results show that relationships between a number of economic variables (Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, population, index of informational globalisation) and the phenomenon of pilgrimages were confirmed by the model. The results show that unemployment and Gross Domestic Product are unidirectionally related to the religious phenomenon. Besides, there is a bivariate relationship between pilgrimages and the rate of globalisation. Finally, the results suggest that the relationship between population and pilgrimage exists thanks to common factors that drive both phenomena. These results provide policymakers with a theoretical basis for decision-making assistance, improving the conditions for the creation of projects that favour the local economy and pilgrims. The study also contributes to the literature because it analyses the Marian phenomenon from the perspective of economic science.