Demography And Economy: A Regional Integrated Model For Estimating The Portuguese Population

Abstract

Population decline is one of the most demanding phenomena in recent decades in various European regions. Moreover, even in regions with a positive migratory balance, a negative demographic dynamic persists, dominated by an ageing population.

As such, demographic ageing and the role of migrations have become a widely debated research and policy topic.
Demographic change stands both as a cause and a consequence of social, economic and environmental dynamics. Therefore, economics and demography interact, reinforcing each other in circles of cumulative causation and, thus, regional policies to deal with such dynamics must be addressed and models able to simulate this interactive process are required.
An integrated model was developed with the aim of answering this challenge, linking changes in the match between labour demand
and supply across changes in net migration by age group and sex. The model was applied to the regions of Portugal, a country that presents contrasting regional features, both in demographic and economic dimensions. The results demonstrate the demographic urgency and point to the importance of migratory balance to counteract the population decline of most Portuguese regions.
Moreover, the paper emphasises thestrong relationship between labour market and migration, advocating for integrated policies
which jointly address economic and demographic dynamics.